Condo Market Update: A Rare Window of Opportunity for Buyers
TORONTO IS BOOMING – YET THE CONDO MARKET IS AT A CROSSROADS
Toronto has once again claimed its spot as the fastest-growing metropolitan area in both Canada and the U.S., adding nearly 270,000 new residents between July 2023 and July 2024, according to Statistics Canada and the U.S. Census Bureau. The Toronto CMA (Census Metropolitan Area) now boasts a population of 7.1 million, spanning from Oakville to Ajax, and from Lake Ontario all the way north to Lake Simcoe. Just one glance at the skyline — and the many mini-skylines across the GTA — reflects the city’s rapid vertical growth.
But despite the booming population, Toronto’s condo market is under pressure. The surge in pre-construction sales over the past 5–7 years is now translating into a flood of new inventory as projects reach occupancy. And while this shift poses challenges, it also brings unique opportunities — particularly for savvy buyers.
The Investor Dilemma
Many high-rise buildings were heavily marketed to investors, who often bought multiple small, “cookie-cutter” units with the goal of assigning (reselling) them before closing — a strategy that worked well in a hot market. But with interest rates rising dramatically since those original purchases, many investors now can’t close and can’t assign.
As a result, some are walking away from deposits or selling at a loss, while others risk legal action from developers. This has created unprecedented resale and assignment inventory — often at discounted prices.
End Users : A More Stable Segment
Unlike investors, end users (buyers who intend to live in the unit) tend to be less sensitive to rate hikes and aren’t buying with short-term profit in mind. Many boutique, luxury buildings designed for end users are set to close within the next 6–12 months and are experiencing less volatility.
Why Now Is a Smart Time to Buy
Several projects have been delayed, paused, or pushed into receivership — and some may never be completed. Developers are now sitting on unsold inventory, especially larger units or those returned by distressed investors.
This rare situation creates a golden opportunity: buyers today can purchase brand-new, never-lived-in condos at a discount.
Here’s What You Need to Know:
The top 10% of units (with the best layouts, views, and finishes) will likely be absorbed by the end of 2025.
The remaining inventory will be taken up in the following 12–18 months.
By 2027, we’re likely looking at a condo shortage — and that’s when prices are expected to rise again.
Remember, Toronto continues to be the fastest-growing metropolis in North America — and demand will catch up.
Tips for Buying New Construction Today
1. Choose an active project that’s already under construction — it means financing is secured.
2. Work with a reputable builder with a strong track record of successful completions.
3. Prioritize location. Stick to well-established or high-demand areas — now is not the time to chase fringe markets.
4. Don’t go it alone. Work with an experienced realtor (like me!) who knows new construction and who will protect your interests because the builder works for the builder, not for you.
Let’s Talk Strategy
Whether you’re looking for a personal residence or a smart long-term investment, now is the time to explore your options.
Contact me directly at 416-818-1508, or reply to this email to book a consultation. I’ll provide a personalized list of active opportunities and help you navigate the market with confidence.
Looking forward to helping you navigate today’s market with confidence.
